Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
